Cardinal Scola is the papal contender most favored by the Italians, and the Italian Cardinals are in the majority. This may be the last papal election in which the Italians do have a majority. I think there is a high likelihood that an Italian will win this time although my own favorites are Cardinal Dolan, Cardinal O'Malley and Cardinal Turkson. That said, I would be very surprised if an American wins this time around, but I do think the top contender from Africa, Cardinal Turkson stands a decent chance. If the next Pope is going to be an Italian, then Cardinal Scola is a good choice. Many say that he is well positioned to shake up the powerful Vatican bureaucracy and would be a reformer in favor of a complete overhaul of the Vatican bureaucracy. Although he is 71, he has displayed a natural talent for connecting with the youth. Last month he quoted a passage from Jack Kerouac asking his audience to think about whether they "we are going to get somewhere, or just going." He has the future in mind and an idea of what needs to change for that to happen. He has gained support by those who want to overhaul the Church so that it can be more in touch with important political issues of our times, more responsive to the people and more efficient and transparent in its management of resources. We won't know who has the most support from the cardinals until they emerge from the conclave, Cardinal Scola was widely regarded as the front-runner when they were locked in for the vote.
